2010 Crystal Ball

Well, it's certainly been a while since I checked in. A whole off-season in fact. And once again the fact that I never intended this to solely be a blog about football doesn't seem to have changed the fact that that's all I've blogged about thus far.

As we eagerly await the kick-off of another NRL season, it's time for me to put my reputation on the line and make a few predictions for the year ahead. I made these predictions back at the start of January on the Front Row Forums at League Unlimited.

Ivan Cleary first coach sacked

To me, this one seems a no-brainer. Cleary seems like a nice guy, but I just don't think he's an NRL coach. After he led the Warriors to one of their worst seasons in recent history, and their squad have gone backwards since. Some of his brilliant moves included releasing Nathan Fien, who went on to win a minor premiership with the Dragons, and Denan Kemp, who went straight back to Brisbane after just one season. The Warriors have a very poor roster for this season and I can't see Clearly lasting the year.

Newcastle to finish in the bottom 3

This prediction was made before the drugs scandal engulfed the club, and before their only decent player was sidelined with a knee injury. Now, it's a dead-set certainty. If they avoid the wooden spoon, they can consider it a good season.

Canberra and Souths to finish in the top 4

The Souths prediction shouldn't surprise anyone - they've potentially got the best forward pack in the NRL, and some great speedy backs. The only real question mark is at halfback, with Chris Sandow capable of going from the sublime to the ridiculous in a matter of minutes. The Raiders prediction, on the other hand, is very different to what most of the "experts" have been saying. Laugh all you want, I'm certain that this is going to happen. One of the best forward packs in the NRL, one of the most exciting backlines in the competition, and genuine superstars in Josh Dugan and Terry Campese. They'll have a very big year.

Todd Carney to be involved in an off-field incident

It didn't take long for this one to come true - the lighter incident coming to light literally one day after I originally made the prediction.

An undeserving Kurt Gidley gets picked for NSW - again

Kurt Gidley is not a big game player. Everyone except the selectors knows this. Kurt Gidley is not a utility. Everyone except the selectors knows this. Surely, with the abundance of candidates for the NSW fullback position, they can't select Gidley there again. Not ahead of the likes of Jarryd Hayne or Brett Stewart. Can they? History tells us - expect the unexpected.

Penrith to play well until Elliott gets a contract extension, then fall in a heap again

It happened last year, and in fact every year that Matthew Elliott has been the Panthers coach. They play badly, he's under pressure, and then after a couple of good games the Penrith hierarchy overreact and offer him a contract extension, or at least a reassurance that his job is safe. Once that happens, they fall in a heap again. With everything to play for, the way they ended 2009 was absolutely disgraceful. The fans deserve better.

Tim Sheens to make it 5 straight seasons without finals, but keep his job

We heard about it during the Tri Nations: Benji Marshall has a get-out clause if Tim Sheens is no longer Tigers coach. That alone should be enough for Teflon Tim to survive another year regardless of the performance on the field. He has a good squad at his disposal, yet somehow manages to miss the finals every year. Once again, the fans deserve better.

Josh Dugan to play representative football

One highlight of 2009 was the emergence of this future superstar. Josh Dugan played so well last season that he actually outperformed Jarryd Hayne statistically. He made more metres, more tackle busts... everything really apart from tries. This kid is the real deal, and he kicked off his representative career with a Prime Minister's XIII match at the end of last season. A Country certainty this year.

Ben Cummins to take the mantle of number 1 whistleblower

In an era where refereeing standards have plummeted to an all-time low, one man stands head and shoulders above the other as the best in the NRL. He's not regarded as such yet, perhaps due to his relative inexperience, but Ben Cummins will no doubt one day be the number 1. I think it'll happen this season

The Raiders to lose at least one game due solely to abysmal refereeing

On 6 occasions last year, abysmal refereeing decisions proved the difference between winning and losing for the Canberra Raiders, no more notable than the early season game at Parramatta Stadium which indirectly led to the Eels qualifying for the finals. The Raiders always cop a raw deal more often than other teams, so this one is a sure bet.

So that's it, my list of 10 fearless predictions for 2010. Stay tuned throughout the year, because I'll keep you updated as to how they're turning out. 1 of them has already come true.

skeepe out.

Under Pressure

Forgive me blogosphere, for it has been a while since my last rant. Well over a month in fact, poor form when you're just starting out.

And what an eventful month it has been. The Wallabies have lost... and lost... and lost... and lost some more. My beloved Raiders have been consistently inconsistent to the point where the combined scoresheet from our last matches with all the top 4 teams reads 3 wins, 1 loss with 104 points scored and 79 conceded, while our last matches against the bottom 3 teams reads 0 wins, 3 losses with 46 points scored and 86 conceded. And, of course, we lost the Ashes.

Also over the last month, in a victory for people power, I compiled stats showing how the Raiders were not getting their fair share of free-to-air TV coverage, stats that were picked up and written about by The Canberra Times and Rugby League Week, and talked about on ABC Grandstand in an interview with NRL CEO David Gallop. Oh come on, allow me a little smugness about that one.

So then why, with no shortage of topics to talk about, would I come back to the exact same topic that I blogged about over a month ago? Because of two words: Phil Haines.

Now, I like Phil Haines as a referee. He has shown enormous promise in his (very) short career so far. One thing that is certain is that he doesn't shirk away from making the big calls. Unfortunately, as we all now know, this is also his weakness. His decision to send off Luke Douglas was a rookie mistake, and had it been at a lower level of the game it may have been accepted as one of those things. But this is the NRL, and like it or not the NRL is big business. Fans spend hundreds - if not thousands - of dollars every year in the name of supporting their team. Betting agencies turn over millions of dollars in wagers every week. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

What I'm trying to get at here is that, with so many stakeholders having a financial interest in results, referees are going to be placed under the microscope for every decision they make. This is why, even allowing for his inexperience, cracking under pressure the way Haines did last weekend is not tolerated. It can well be argued that Cronulla lost that game against Manly simply because of this decision (not to mention the countless baffling ones that followed it), and that has an enormous effect on all the things I mentioned previously.

I suppose you could argue that with the introduction of the two referee system this year we had to suddenly find another 8-10 referees for the first grade pool, many of whom would have spent a few more years fine-tuning their trade in the lower grades but for the change. Whilst there is some validity to this argument, Robert Finch doesn't get paid to make excuses. He gets paid to ensure that every referee who goes out onto the paddock each weekend is fully prepared and able to handle the pressure and intensity of first grade rugby league. Increasingly, we are seeing that Robert Finch simply is not doing his job. Week after week we see referees making basic errors in law, and it's simply not good enough.

This raises the question: who is Robert Finch accountable to? What are the measures of whether he has done a good job or not? Does he have any KPI's that he needs to meet? I believe we, the fans, have a right to know this sort of information. And given my little victory with my free-to-air statistics, something I will undertake to find out.

Watch this space.

Time for Finch to fly the coop

Whilst it was never my intent to start a blog that focuses solely on rugby league-related issues, I guess like most I find that I have much more to say about things that I know a great deal about. So it is that I launch into yet another topic about the greatest sport there is.

I write this particular piece that highlights a negative aspect of the game not because I'm trying to bring it down like all those alleged "journalists" plying their trade in the AFL states, but because I deeply care for the game, and have found this issue to be one of deep frustration.

The issue is Robert Finch's tenure as boss of the referees. To anyone who has taken even a passing interest in the game over the last 10-15 years, it will be painfully obvious that the standard of officiating - at least at an NRL level - is at an all-time low. Not a week, or indeed most of the time not even a match can pass by without a few contentious calls that leave all of us scratching our heads in disbelief. Whether it's something simple - like a penalty being given for a strip despite the ball never leaving the hands of the carrier - or something game changing, like a try being denied despite all available evidence pointing to the contrary, the referees in the game today are simply not up to the job.

It is often said that a game well refereed is one when you don't notice the man in the middle. This season, and probably for the past few, there is literally not a single match you can say that for, and that's sad.

Don't even get me started on the separation vs control debate when it comes to grounding the ball. The fact a player can drop the ball, but still have a finger on it when it touches the turf and be awarded the try is an absolute travesty. But I digress.

Now I understand the pressures these referees are under. Every single decision they make is scrutinised by the fans, the players, the coaches and the media. They're subject to abuse every time they go out with the whistle, be it from the players, or more likely from the crowds, but that's why they're paid the big bucks. They're human, and sure they're going to make mistakes. I don't think I speak out of turn when I say that the game-watching public can deal with that if it happens from time to time. The view of the referee may be blocked and they miss a knock on, for example. It's annoying, but it's something that we can all accept, provided it's not happening constantly. But that's the problem. It is.

So I ask the question: Who does the buck stop with? If it were one or two referees who were consistently bad, consistently getting the decisions wrong, you could explain it away as simply a couple of bad apples. The fact that it appears to be every single one of them leads me to one conclusion: the buck stops with the boss. Step forward, Mr Robert Finch. A man who, having never been a referee in his life, is somehow in control of them at the highest level. A man who has overseen the most dramatic slump in officiating standards in recent memory. A man who has demonstrated a lack of understanding of the rules and the reasons for them. Put simpy, a man unsuited to the job.

Robert Finch is directly responsible for the alarming incompetence of the referees. If his job description is to prepare a squad of referees so that they are competent enough to be given the whistle for a first grade NRL game, then he has failed miserably to meet it. It is for this reason that I say here and now that Robert Finch should resign from his post. Do the honourable thing and walk away. Bring in someone with actual refereeing experience, someone not carrying so much baggage from previous appointments with various clubs. Sure, they may not be any better, but they sure as hell can't be any worse.

NSW 28 Queensland 16

Well, I got that one wrong didn't I? NSW were just too good on the night. I still think the NSW selectors have got it wrong all series, and the performances (or lack of) of David Williams, Josh Perry and Glenn Stewart were a case in point, but full credit to them tonight. They were the far superior team and probably deserved to win by more than they did in the end.

A special congratulations to Anthony Watmough. He has had more than his fair share of critics, particularly that he doesn't perform in the big games, but he was immense out there. The best game I have seen him play.

With that out of the way, I move to a real bugbear of mine. The standard of refereeing in the NRL. Those that know me will know that I don't particularly rate the way the top level is refereed these days. I know I should be easier on them given that I have some understanding of the pressures that they're under, but at the same time I also have a very good knowledge of the rules, and the fact is that they appear to be making blunder after blunder. And it's getting worse. The performances of Shayne Hayne and Tony Archer tonight were well below par. When they weren't turning a blind eye to facials, forearms and elbows, they were penalising players for the most innocuous of actions. I have no problem with the theory of being lenient in the Origin arena, but they got it the wrong way round tonight.

While there will be many who deride the game for the violence of the last 5 minutes, I thought it was absolutely fantastic. There was real passion on display - from both sides - and that's something that this game is sorely lacking at the moment.

Maroonwash

Ah yes, it's that time of the year. Time for the Mighty Maroons from Queensland to show those pesky cockroaches who the best state is. Time for both sets of fans cheer on their team in the decid.... errr hang on. What's that? Queensland have already won the series? Well why the hell are we going around again?

I'll tell you why... MAROONWASH! Queensland are out to win the series 3-0 and inflict the ultimate humiliation on the pensioners, powder puffs and marshmallows (oh, and Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, the only player who doesn't fall into the aforementioned categories) from New South Wales. And achieve it they will. I'm fully expecting Queensland to celebrate their record 4th consecutive series victory in the most emphatic of ways.

Some will say that this result was inevitable, and that NSW never stood a chance against the might of one of the greatest Queensland sides ever assembled. Excuses. The real fact is the NSW selectors have failed right from the outset. Game I, and despite being the better performed of the halves, Terry Campese is dropped for failing to lead NSW to victory. This despite the fact NSW selectors promised they were looking to the future and would show faith in the 17 selected regardless of the result.

In fact, the NSW selectors have shown so little faith in their initial squad that at the end of the series they will have used 30 players. That's an average of 6 changes per game. Some faith. The worst part of this though was that they dropped some players while others - playing just as badly - seem untouchable. Kurt Gidley remains at fullback despite being absolutely awful. Don't get me started on the selections of Josh Perry and Brett White.

I've yet to mention the practice of NSW selecting injured players. By all reports, 5 or 6 players were unable to train right up to Origin II. Peter Wallace actually played injured, and failed miserably. Despite that, they are destined to repeat the same mistake with Kurt Gidley tonight also due to play injured, having not trained all week.

It's enough to make me almost feel sorry for NSW supporters... until I remember that they are NSW supporters, that is. So for those cockroaches amongst us, read it and weep:

2006 - Queensland 2-1
2007 - Queensland 2-1
2008 - Queensland 2-1
2009 - Queensland 3-0

skeepe's prediction: Queensland 42-16 New South Wales, FTS: Greg Inglis MOTM: Johnathon Thurston

Just Another Welcome Post

Yes, that's right. This is my blog. I felt the blogosphere wasn't crowded enough, and that I should add my own voice to the mix. Why? Well, because I've got a lot to say. I don't really care if nobody reads it, the fact that I've put my thoughts into words is enough. That said, you're reading this so I've already exceeded my expectations.

So what is this blog about? Well, like most, there's no real topic. If I have something to say, I'll say it. I have strong opinions about a multitude of topics and I won't apologise for that. If you like what you read, let me know. If you don't, let me know that too. If you just don't care enough, thanks for reading anyway.

skeepe